Best Actress
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence. The Hunger Games actress gives a stirring, sizzling electricity to her sex-addict character opposite Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook. She greatly enhances the character of the film and offers a pleasant counterpoint to Cooper's Pat and his battle with bipolar disorder. If she gets Oscar gold for the role, I won't be displeased.
Should Win: Jessica Chastain. I know I'll be upsetting the legions of Jennifer Lawrence fangirls out there, but the Zero Dark Thirty star is worth it. Despite Lawrence's glowing aforementioned performance, Chastain's emotionally taut CIA agent takes the cake for me. Her ability to inhabit the screen with elegance and restraint proves why she's one of the best actresses of this generation, which she first demonstrated in Terrence Malick's trippy Brad Pitt v. Sean Penn experimental film Tree of Life.
Best Actor
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis. The King of Method is back and the Lincoln star doesn't disappoint. The speed with which he's able to disappear into his character remains unrivaled and his high-pitched delivery won over skeptics who feared that audiences might recoil if they didn't hear the low, booming voice they've long attributed to the 16th President of the United States.
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix. I may sound like I'm carrying the torch for The Master here but hear me out. Phoenix's portrayal of PTSD-afflicted WWII vet Freddie Quell is easily one of the most punishing, brutal, and at times disturbing roles brought to theaters in recent years; his intensity never wanes. Though acting students will look to DDL for years to come, they'd be unwise to overlook the lessons they can learn from Phoenix, the recluse come in from the cold.
Best Director
Will Win: Steven Spielberg. The guy doesn't need another Oscar but he'll get it soon. The Academy is made up of traditionalists who still remember the Spielberg era of the 1970s/1980s through tinsel-tinted glasses. Instead of rewarding innovation, they'll stick with a favorite.
Should Win: Ang Lee. I don't think Life of Pi was the best movie of the year, but Lee's level of involvement in bringing the 3D epic to life goes beyond the technical knowhow of most directors. It takes more than a few tricks behind the camera, on the cutting room floor, and in the studio boardrooms to get people to watch a 127 minute film about a boy and a tiger stuck on a boat.
Best Picture
Will Win: Lincoln. Stellar performances, epic battle scenes, period timing, wholesome Americana, its all there. Lincoln follows in the footsteps of The King's Speech in that it's a by-the-numbers film literally made to win an Oscar. Don't get me wrong -its deserving. But it isn't helping anybody by keeping cinema exactly where it is and not pushing the boundaries.
Should Win: Argo. Sweeps at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards show that there's momentum, at least from the Young Turks in Hollywood, gathering behind this Ben Affleck piece of late-70s international intrigue. Like Munich a few years before, this Iran-based thriller combines smart writing, a great cast, quick humor, and liberal appropriation of historical events to craft a whole greater than the sum of its parts.
Images courtesy of IMDB, IMDB.com, and Google Images.
