Oscar Odds - Part II

This week's "Oscar Odds" section gets right down to the meat and potatoes of the celebrated award show -the categories everybody waits through the other categories to see.  Without further ado...

Best Actress

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence. The Hunger Games actress gives a stirring, sizzling electricity to her sex-addict character opposite Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook. She greatly enhances the character of the film and offers a pleasant counterpoint to Cooper's Pat and his battle with bipolar disorder. If she gets Oscar gold for the role, I won't be displeased.

Should Win: Jessica Chastain. I know I'll be upsetting the legions of Jennifer Lawrence fangirls out there, but the Zero Dark Thirty star is worth it. Despite Lawrence's glowing aforementioned performance, Chastain's emotionally taut CIA agent takes the cake for me. Her ability to inhabit the screen with elegance and restraint proves why she's one of the best actresses of this generation, which she first demonstrated in Terrence Malick's trippy Brad Pitt v. Sean Penn experimental film Tree of Life.  

Best Actor

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis. The King of Method is back and the Lincoln star doesn't disappoint. The speed with which he's able to disappear into his character remains unrivaled and his high-pitched delivery won over skeptics who feared that audiences might recoil if they didn't hear the low, booming voice they've long attributed to the 16th President of the United States.

Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix. I may sound like I'm carrying the torch for The Master here but hear me out. Phoenix's portrayal of PTSD-afflicted WWII vet Freddie Quell is easily one of the most punishing, brutal, and at times disturbing roles brought to theaters in recent years; his intensity never wanes. Though acting students will look to DDL for years to come, they'd be unwise to overlook the lessons they can learn from Phoenix, the recluse come in from the cold. 

Best Director

Will Win: Steven Spielberg. The guy doesn't need another Oscar but he'll get it soon. The Academy is made up of traditionalists who still remember the Spielberg era of the 1970s/1980s through tinsel-tinted glasses. Instead of rewarding innovation, they'll stick with a favorite.

Should Win: Ang Lee. I don't think Life of Pi was the best movie of the year, but Lee's level of involvement in bringing the 3D epic to life goes beyond the technical knowhow of most directors. It takes more than a few tricks behind the camera, on the cutting room floor, and in the studio boardrooms to get people to watch a 127 minute film about a boy and a tiger stuck on a boat. 

Best Picture

Will Win: Lincoln. Stellar performances, epic battle scenes, period timing, wholesome Americana, its all there. Lincoln follows in the footsteps of The King's Speech in that it's a by-the-numbers film literally made to win an Oscar. Don't get me wrong -its deserving. But it isn't helping anybody by keeping cinema exactly where it is and not pushing the boundaries. 

Should Win: Argo. Sweeps at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards show that there's momentum, at least from the Young Turks in Hollywood, gathering behind this Ben Affleck piece of late-70s international intrigue. Like Munich a few years before, this Iran-based thriller combines smart writing, a great cast, quick humor, and liberal appropriation of historical events to craft a whole greater than the sum of its parts.

Images courtesy of IMDB, IMDB.com, and Google Images.

Oscar Odds - Part I

With the 85th Academy Awards coming up in less than a month, there's a lot of speculation in Hollywood and across the country over who will take the top prizes. Since I'll never achieve the technical sports acumen required to participate in March madness, this is as close to a bracket as I'm ever going to get. Here's part #1 of my picks for who will and who should take home the gold at the Oscars in February. 

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: Brave. Not much of a contest here. The Academy has not outgrown its love of Disney-Pixar productions, so I expect nothing less than another gold star on Disney's roster come February 24th. 

Should Win: Wreck-It Ralph. Though the odds are stacked against it, this 3D computer-animated piece actually does something that Disney films are not known for -innovating. The movie effectively and convincingly repackages nostalgia for 1980s arcade games like Donkey Kong and Q*bert into a visually-pleasing pastiche entertaining to kids for whom 1982 might as well be the Civil War. Not many animated flicks can do that. 

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Life of Pi. It took teams of visual artists from India, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Canada to put together the shimmering, surreal movie that might become director Ang Lee's most commercially successful film. Claudio Miranda's cinematography is beyond compare and, for once, 3D feels like a legitimate art form instead of a cheap-thrills gimmick.

Should Win: Life of Pi. This visually stunning work deserves the accolades. 

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Zero Dark Thirty. Despite Quentin Tarantino's surprise victory at the Golden Globes, the Academy is more academic and, seemingly, quite unsettled by the over-the-top racism and violence of Tarantino's Django Unchained. The terse, Hurt Locker-esque writing of Zero Dark Thirty is almost a sure thing.

Should Win: Django Unchained. Tarantino is a screenwriter's screenwriter. The man handwrites his scripts, for crying out loud. Though he's not on his Pulp Fiction game, Tarantino is still head and shoulders above any contemporary in the business. 

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Anne Hathaway. Vegas oddsmakers Bet365 put her chances at 1/50. It won't even be close.

Should Win: Helen Hunt. Though The Sessions went mostly under the radar, there's no denying that this is Hunt's best role in years. Unfortunately for Hunt fans, she's competing with a younger actress who lost 40 lbs. and shaved her head. It is worth noting however, that, unlike Hathaway's, Hunt's character does not (this is where those of you not familiar with the story arc of Les Mis should look away) drop dead 3o minutes into the movie.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones. In Lincoln, Jones's character is a staunch abolitionist who forces the slavery issue at a delicate time. He's as grumpy as ever, making you wonder if Tommy Lee Jones is not just getting roles to play Tommy Lee Jones.

Should Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman. Allow me to expose my prejudice: I'm a huge PSH fan. He had me at Almost Famous. But even his biggest detractor could not dispute the genius of his latest role: an intricate portrayal of an L. Ron Hubbard-like 1950s cult leader. Hoffman and co-star Joaquin Phoenix play off each other with theatrical ease not seen since Johnny Depp and Al Pacino in Donnie Brasco. Its his best role since Capote.

Stay tuned for next week's predictions: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Picture, and more...

Images courtesy of IMDB and www.imdb.com. 

Intro

Welcome to CineFile, the blog devoted to the movies we love. This blog will include award predictions, reviews, lists, industry information, and general discussions about all things cinema. With Oscar season upon us, its never been a better time to be a fan of good films.